2025 CAE market review
The Spanish market for Certificados de Ahorro Energetico completed its second full year of operation in 2025 with clear signs of maturity. The 4.942 GWh obligation has been the engine of a market estimated at around 600 million euros per year, with prices stabilised between 115 and 140 EUR/MWh.
The main consolidation indicators in 2025 have been:
- Increase in the number of accredited delegated subjects (from 46 at the start of 2025)
- Stabilisation of market prices with lower volatility
- Improvement in the average quality of files submitted for verification
- Reduction in average ENAC verification times
What to expect in 2026?
Increased obligation
The annual energy saving obligation will continue its upward trajectory in line with what is foreseen in RD 36/2023 and the European Energy Efficiency Directive. The 2026 obligation is expected to exceed 5.000 GWh, representing an increase of more than 1% compared to 2025.
This increase is the most important signal for the market: more obligation means more demand for CAE, which supports prices and generates additional opportunities for delegated subjects.
Price evolution
CAE prices in 2026 will likely move within the band of 125 to 155 EUR/MWh, with slight upward pressure compared to 2025. The factors underpinning this forecast are:
- Higher annual obligation (increased demand)
- Slow incorporation of new delegated subjects into the market (limited supply)
- Greater quality requirements from verifiers (production cost)
- General inflation impacting the cost of actions
Professionalisation of the market
2026 will mark the transition from an artisanal market to a professionalised one. Delegated subjects who continue to manage their files with Excel will lose competitiveness against those who adopt specialised tools. Obligated parties will be more demanding regarding the quality of files and delivery times.
New datasheets and catalogue updates
The MITECO periodically updates the catalogue of standardised datasheets. The July 2024 update brought the total to 114 datasheets. New datasheets are expected to be added in 2026, potentially in the following sectors:
- Residential: new datasheets for the energy renovation of homes
- Electric mobility: datasheets related to charging infrastructure
- Energy digitalisation: expansion of management system datasheets (GTB/BMS)
- Renewable energy: extension of solar thermal datasheets to new areas
Strategic opportunities for delegated subjects
Sector specialisation
Delegated subjects who specialise in a vertical sector (hotel, healthcare, logistics, food industry) will be able to offer a more differentiated service and build a reputation that facilitates client acquisition.
Framework agreements with obligated parties
Negotiating annual framework agreements with obligated parties provides revenue visibility and planning capacity. Obligated parties increasingly value delegated subjects capable of committing significant volumes.
Internationalisation of skills
The Spanish CAE system is inspired by the French Certificats d'Economies d'Energie (CEE) and similar schemes in Italy and the United Kingdom. Spanish delegated subjects who develop solid skills will be able to explore opportunities in neighbouring markets that implement or strengthen their own energy saving obligation systems.
Technology as a competitive advantage
The adoption of SaaS platforms like CertificAhorro, the automation of parameter extraction with artificial intelligence and the automatic generation of verifier files will be differentiating factors that determine which delegated subjects can scale their activity and which will remain limited by manual management.
Conclusion: a market in full expansion
The CAE market in Spain is far from maturity. With a growing obligation, a sustained price and a still limited supply of delegated subjects, 2026 will be a year of opportunities for the players who prepare now: by building a portfolio, standardising processes and adopting the right tools.