Market

CAE prices in Spain: trends and forecasts

Current state of the certificate market, price range and short-term outlook.

CAE prices in 2025

In the first quarter of 2025, the market price of Certificados de Ahorro Energetico stands between 115 and 140 EUR/MWh, with an average around 127 to 130 EUR/MWh. This range has shown remarkable stability since RD 36/2023 came into force, with fluctuations limited to plus or minus 10%.

The factors that determine the price

  • Annual obligation: the 4.942 GWh obligation for 2025 sets the volume of structural demand. The higher the obligation, the greater the upward pressure on the price.
  • Supply of delegated subjects: with only 46 accredited delegated subjects, supply is still limited relative to the demand from obligated parties.
  • Type of datasheet: not all datasheets carry the same price. Datasheets with more complex documentation or harder-to-verify actions are traded at a slight discount.
  • Volume traded: large-volume agreements (over 1,000 MWh) allow the delegated subject to negotiate better terms.
  • File quality: files with complete documentation and verification carried out before submission are traded at the highest price.

Historical market trends

  • 2023 (launch): initial prices between 90 and 110 EUR/MWh, amid regulatory uncertainty
  • 2024: stabilisation in the 115 to 135 EUR/MWh band as the market matures
  • 2025: consolidation between 115 and 140 EUR/MWh, with prospects of a moderate increase

Outlook 2025 to 2026

Several factors point to moderate upward pressure on the price:

  • The progressive increase in annual obligations provided for in RD 36/2023
  • The rising demand from obligated parties facing more demanding targets
  • The slow onboarding of new delegated subjects to the register (the accreditation process takes 2 to 3 months)

Industry analysts forecast prices in the 125 to 150 EUR/MWh band for the second half of 2025.

How to maximise the value of your CAE portfolio?

  • File quality: complete documentation from the outset reduces verification cycles and improves the negotiation price
  • Processing speed: obligated parties reward fast delivery, especially at the end of the obligation year
  • Datasheet diversification: combining high-value datasheets (IND240, TER040) with high-volume datasheets (IND050) optimises portfolio performance
  • Long-term agreements: committing annual volume with an obligated party provides price stability and predictable cash flow

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